Reconciliation in Afghanistan: This time it’s for real?

Edward Kenney
Afghanistan Study Group Blogger

Steve Coll reports in the New Yorker that the Obama administration is engaged in secret high level talks with the Taliban.  If true, this marks an important development towards ending the conflict; Afghanistan Study Group put political reconciliation and power sharing first in its list of recommendations for a new direction in Afghan policy.  It is nice to see the Obama administration following our advice.

Still, Coll’s revelations should be taken with a grain of salt.  We all remember the reports last fall that the U.S. was facilitating peace talks; unfortunately one of the Talib leaders with whom the U.S. was talking turned out to be a fraud, and the negotiations fizzled.  A heavy dose of skepticism is therefore warranted when it comes to anonymous sources claiming the existence of secret ongoing peace negotiations.  Nevertheless, this leak does suggest that the Obama administration is more willing to engage the Taliban than previously thought.

One line particularly stuck out in Coll’s article:

General David Petraeus said recently that counterinsurgency efforts in the Taliban strongholds of Helmand and Kandahar provinces had pushed the guerrillas back. It was these perceived military gains that influenced the Administration’s decision to enter into direct talks.

Just last week, John Nagl and Nathaniel Fick of the neo-conservative Center for New American Security argued in the New York Times that the insurgency would have to be marginalized before negotiating; a view that always seemed at odds with reality.  Now the truth comes out:  If Coll’s report is to be believed, it was actually the Americans who refused to negotiate from a position of weakness.  If the supposed military gains of the past month open up the door to a peace process, this will indeed be a positive development.

End Note

On the subject of reconciliation, Afghan analyst Minna Jaavenpaa has an excellent new report on the challenges of making peace in Afghanistan published by the United States Institute for Peace.  Her paper nicely compliments some of my own work on this subject.  It is well worth a read.

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